CEM REPORT, MARKET| The specter of hunger looms large over West and Central Africa, with a new report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and its partners sounding the alarm. The report predicts a significant rise in food insecurity across the region, with millions projected to struggle to meet their basic nutritional needs in the coming months.

The report estimates that a staggering 52 million people across 17 countries in West and Central Africa will face severe food insecurity during the upcoming lean season, which typically falls between June and August. This translates to a concerning 12% of the analyzed population lacking access to adequate food.

Nigeria Worst Hit

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is projected to be one of the worst-hit countries. The report estimates that 31.7 million Nigerians, or roughly 16% of the population, will face “crisis level or emergency food insecurity” during the lean season. This figure represents a significant increase compared to 2023, highlighting the rapidly deteriorating situation.

The report further identifies the northern states of Sokoto and Zamfara as potential epicenters, with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis classifying the situation as “critical.” These areas are already grappling with high rates of malnutrition, with over 15% of children suffering from acute deficiencies.

Beyond Nigeria

The crisis is not confined to Nigeria’s borders. The IRC report paints a bleak picture for the entire West and Central African region. Here’s a breakdown of some of the worst-affected countries, according to the report:

Mauritania: 656,652 people (14% of the population)

Burkina Faso: 2,734,196 people (12% of the population)

Niger: 3,436,892 people (13% of the population)

Chad: 3,364,453 people (20% of the population)

Sierra Leone: 1,569,895 people (20% of the population)

A Perfect Storm of Challenges

The IRC report identifies several key factors contributing to the worsening food insecurity crisis in the region. Here’s a closer look at each:

Insecurity: Ongoing conflicts and violence in countries like Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali have severely disrupted agricultural activities and displaced millions of people from their homes and farmlands.

Climate Change: Erratic weather patterns, including prolonged droughts and floods, have devastated harvests and eroded livelihoods across the region.

Economic Pressures: Soaring inflation rates, particularly for essential food items, are putting basic necessities out of reach for many families. In January 2024, the average inflation rate in the region stood at a staggering 21%, a significant increase from 2023. Some countries, like Sierra Leone, are experiencing inflation rates as high as 54%.

IRC Recommendations

The looming food insecurity crisis in West and Central Africa demands immediate and coordinated action from governments, humanitarian organizations, and the international community. Here are some potential solutions:

Increased Humanitarian Aid: Increased funding and resources are crucial to support food distributions, cash assistance programs, and malnutrition treatment initiatives in affected areas.

Investing in Sustainable Agriculture: Long-term solutions require investments in climate-resilient agricultural practices and improved access to seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation systems.

Addressing Regional Insecurity: Finding sustainable solutions to ongoing conflicts is essential to restoring food production and ensuring the safety of farmers and communities.

The situation in West and Central Africa is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global challenges. Climate change, conflict, and economic instability can have devastating consequences for food security, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Urgent action is needed to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and ensure everyone has access to the food they need to survive and thrive.

Looking ahead, the projected outlook for the period June-August 2024 appears even more severe,” warns the IRC report. The combination of these factors creates a perfect storm that threatens to push millions of people into hunger and malnutrition.

If You Ask Me

The IRC report sounds a clarion call for urgent action from governments, international organizations, and humanitarian agencies. Increased humanitarian assistance is crucial to provide food aid to those in dire need. Additionally, long-term solutions are needed to address the root causes of food insecurity, such as conflict resolution, climate-smart agricultural practices, and social safety nets for vulnerable populations.

The Culprits

“Poor economic conditions, exceptionally high inflation, and limited consumer spending power” are the culprits, the report says. Nigerians are being squeezed, forced to ration essentials or seek cheaper, often unpackaged alternatives.

Over the past seven months, inflation has skyrocketed to an 18-year high, fueled by government reforms like fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation. The National Bureau of Statistics paints a grim picture: food inflation at 32.84%, a kilogram of local rice costing 74% more than last year, and a 500g loaf of bread nearly five times its price just 12 months ago.

The World Bank paints an even starker portrait. Their Nigeria Development Update reveals a shocking: 14.2 million Nigerians plunged into poverty between January and November 2023, with rising inflation a key culprit. This means 104 million Nigerians, nearly half the population, now struggle to make ends meet.

Food prices, a major driver of inflation, are also at their highest in 18 years. A kilogram of local rice now costs nearly double what it did in 2022, while a loaf of sliced bread has quadrupled in price. The price hikes extend to basic necessities like eggs, chicken, and even yams.

“Economic conditions worsened in 2023,” the Euromonitor report grimly states. Demonetization policies and fuel price hikes have exacerbated the inflation crisis, forcing Nigerians to spend more on essentials like fuel, leaving even less for food.

The consequences are devastating. The World Bank estimates that rising inflation and sluggish economic growth pushed an additional 14.2 million Nigerians into poverty in 2023 alone, bringing the total to a staggering 104 million.

Further Food Hike in Nigeria

The outlook for 2024 is far from comforting. The Food and Agricultural Organization and World Food Program predict further price hikes for staple foods across West Africa, including Nigeria. The region faces a perfect storm of production deficits, trade restrictions, Sahel insecurity, and currency depreciation.

“Staple prices currently remain above the five-year average across the region. This is attributable to a combination of factors including production deficits, trade restrictions, insecurity in the Sahel, elevated global prices, high transaction costs, and currency depreciation in the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea,” it said.

Government initiatives like targeted cash transfers offer some relief, but a long-term solution demands a multi-pronged approach. Tighter fiscal and monetary policies are crucial to curb inflation, while bolstering domestic food production can shield against external shocks.

Nigeria’s battle against the rising tide of inflation is far from over. Empty plates and burdened wallets tell a story of struggle and resilience. The time for action is now. Only by addressing the root causes of this crisis and implementing sustainable solutions can the nation ensure its kitchens are once again filled with the aroma of hope and prosperity.

December 6, 2024

hunger