Africa is poised for a significant increase in oil production in 2025, with West Africa leading the charge. According to the State of African Energy 2025 Outlook by the African Energy Chamber (AEC), the region is expected to increase its oil output from approximately 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to nearly 7 million bpd.
“West Africa continues to remain the major driver of oil supply, producing around 3.7 million bpd of oil currently. With sustained production from Angola and a recovery from Nigeria, the region could produce between 3.8 – 3.9 million bpd,” the Outlook stated.
Overcoming Challenges to Meet Oil Production Targets
Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, is crucial to this growth trajectory. The country is targeting 2.06 million bpd in 2025, a significant increase from recent years.
“The gradual increase hinges majorly on the curtailment of pipeline vandalisms and oil thefts in Nigeria, and a more stable environment in Sudan which also affects South Sudan’s production,” the AEC emphasized.
Curbing Oil Theft
Oil theft and pipeline vandalism have plagued Nigeria’s oil sector for years, significantly impacting production. In 2022, the country lost an estimated $23 million daily to oil theft, with March 2023 witnessing losses exceeding $1.43 billion.
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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has implemented enhanced security measures to combat these challenges, achieving 1.8 million bpd in October 2024.
Bonga North Project
The Shell-operated Bonga North deep-water project, with a $5 billion Final Investment Decision (FID), is expected to significantly boost Nigeria’s oil production.
The project involves drilling and completing 16 wells, with an estimated recoverable resource of over 300 million barrels of oil equivalent. It is projected to achieve peak production of 110,000 barrels of oil per day, with first oil expected by the end of the decade.
Government Reforms Boosting Oil Sector Investment
The Nigerian government has implemented several reforms to improve the investment climate in the oil sector.
“We have eliminated bureaucratic bottlenecks in licensing, facilitated capacity building for indigenous players, and introduced numerous reforms too extensive to list,” stated Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil). “Reflecting on this journey, it is evident we have made remarkable strides.”
Despite the challenges, Nigeria is poised to play a pivotal role in driving Africa’s oil production growth in 2025. Continued efforts to combat oil theft, coupled with strategic investments in key projects like Bonga North, are crucial for achieving the country’s ambitious production targets.
The success of these endeavors will not only benefit the Nigerian economy but also contribute significantly to Africa’s energy landscape.
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