At the 12th National Economic Outlook organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Centre for Financial Studies (CIBNCFS) in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates Limited (BAA Consult) on the 15th January, 2026 at the Bankers House, Victoria Island, Lagos, the forum underscored a national shift from bold, and often painful, reforms to the more demanding phase of consolidation, credibility, and sustainable growth. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s presentation made it clear that this transition, if carefully managed, could finally anchor stability and restore confidence in Africa’s largest economy.
The Outlook was titled: Implication for Businesses in Nigeria in 2026
In the goodwill message from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Real GDP growth is projected to rise to 4.49 per cent in 2026 from an estimated 3.89 per cent in 2025, driven largely by non-oil sector expansion and improving private-sector investment. While modest, this growth trajectory signals a gradual recovery from recent macroeconomic shocks and presents opportunities for businesses to expand operations, deepen value chains, and better integrate into regional and global markets.
Inflation, the most immediate threat to business survival and household welfare, is projected to continue its downward trend, moderating to 12.94 per cent in 2026. This reflects easing food and energy pressures and the delayed impact of sustained monetary tightening. For businesses, a more predictable inflation environment is pivotal, as it stabilises input costs, restores consumer purchasing power, and reduces uncertainty, thereby improving planning, pricing, and investment decisions.
The most encouraging signal comes from the external sector. The estimated balance of payments surplus of $3.81 billion in 2025 marks a decisive turnaround from recent deficits, supported by FX reforms, improved oil receipts, and stronger diaspora remittances. With foreign reserves projected to exceed $50 billion in 2026, exchange rate stability is expected to improve.
The event didn’t undermine the younger generation, going by the philosophy of the Institute to keep growing the future leaders, Generation Next Philosophy, students from the Victoria Island Senior Secondary School and Kuramo Senior Secondary School were also in attendance and were well recognised.
Read full speech of CBN below
Protocol
The President and Chairman of Council, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria;
Distinguished Fellows and Members of the Institute;
Captains of Industry and Leaders of the Financial Community;
Development Partners;
Ladies and Gentlemen.
Opening
1.On behalf of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), I am pleased to convey warm greetings to the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria. I commend the Institute for sustaining this important platform for analytical discourse, strategic dialogue, and constructive engagement between policy makers and industry leaders.
2.Your focus on the implications of the National Economic Outlook for businesses is especially relevant as Nigeria transitions from the implementation of bold macroeconomic reforms to the consolidation of stability, credibility, and sustainable growth. The deliberations at this Roundtable are therefore timely and instrumental in aligning expectations, shaping strategy, and strengthening collaboration across stakeholders.
State of the Economy and Outlook
3.At the Central Bank of Nigeria, our Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026 reflects cautious optimism rooted in measurable improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals. Real GDP growth is projected to strengthen to 4.49 per cent in 2026, up from an estimated 3.89 per cent in 2025. This outlook is supported by continued expansion in the non-oil sector, improved crude oil production, a more stable macroeconomic environment, and growing private sector investment.
4.Inflation, though still elevated, is projected to continue on a downward trajectory, moderating to 12.94 per cent in 2026. This reflects easing food and energy pressures and the lagged effects of earlier monetary tightening. Sustaining this disinflationary path will require disciplined coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.
5.Nigeria’s external sector recorded a decisive strengthening in 2025, with an estimated US$3.81 billion balance of payments surplus, a turnaround from deficits in the two preceding years. Building on this, foreign exchange market conditions are expected to remain broadly stable, supported by ongoing FX reforms, improved diaspora remittances, higher oil receipts, and enhanced investor confidence. External reserves are projected to exceed $50 billion in 2026, and the current account balance is expected to maintain a healthy surplus.
6.These gains represent the early dividends of the reforms implemented over the past two years, highlighting the importance of sustaining policy credibility and consistency.
7.For the business community, the emerging domestic landscape presents both opportunities and responsibilities. The projected growth path signals a gradually improving environment for scaling operations, accessing finance, and integrating into regional and global value chains.
8.Exchange rate stability and a transparent, market driven FX framework are expected to strengthen balance sheet planning, reduce hedging costs, and enhance access to foreign inputs and capital goods. Meanwhile, lower and more predictable inflation will stabilise input prices, lift real consumer spending, and reduce uncertainty, key ingredients for expanding output and employment.
9.Beyond these macro indicators, structural improvements are unfolding across the economy. The ongoing banking sector recapitalisation is strengthening the financial system’s ability to support credit expansion for manufacturing, agribusiness, technology, and other productive sectors. Additionally, improvements in power, transportation, and digital infrastructure are easing longstanding bottlenecks and lowering operating costs, thereby boosting Nigeria’s competitiveness.
10.On the fiscal side, enhanced public financial management, deeper implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, broad based tax reforms, and better expenditure discipline are critical for reinforcing monetary policy effectiveness, improving debt sustainability, and ensuring that credit increasingly flows toward productive private sector activities.
11.While these developments provide a strong foundation for sustained growth, the outlook is not without risks. Global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and commodity price volatility, continue to pose external threats. Domestically, vulnerabilities such as infrastructure gaps, climatic shocks, and security related disruptions could temper growth momentum.
12.Against this backdrop, our stance remains one of cautious optimism. The CBN remains committed to working closely with fiscal authorities to pursue data dependent policies that respond swiftly and effectively to emerging conditions. Above all, our institutional focus remains on locking in the gains from ongoing reforms, strengthening policy coherence, and building the resilience required to navigate future shocks.
What We Have Done: Stabilisation and Market Confidence
13.Over the past two years, the Central Bank has taken deliberate and coordinated actions to restore macroeconomic stability and strengthen market confidence. These include:
Commitment to orthodox, datadriven monetary policy, tightening when necessary to tame inflation and recalibrating when conditions improved.
Transition toward a fullfl edged inflation targeting framework, supported by stronger models, clearer communication, and well defined transitional targets.
Deep foreign exchange market reforms, enhancing transparency, strengthening regulatory oversight, widening competition in remittance channels, and narrowing the gap between official and parallel-market rates.
Banking sector recapitalisation, ensuring that institutions have stronger capital buffers to support largescale credit intermediation.
Enhanced financial stability safeguards, including realtime stresstesting, improved supervisory frameworks, stronger credit recovery mechanisms, and reinforced cybersecurity standards.
14.These reforms have significantly strengthened the foundations for macroeconomic stability and market confidence.
15.Looking ahead, the Bank will maintain its trajectory of reform through four strategic pillars:
We will continue to strengthen price stability and monetary policy effectiveness, ensuring predictable policy signals for households and businesses.
We will deepen financial sector resilience, through enhanced supervision, improved market conduct, and sustained support for domestic market development.
We will enhance external sector stability, enforcing FX market standards, improving documentation and trade processes, and supporting the expansion of localcurrency settlement mechanisms.
We will support structural transformation, collaborating with fiscal authorities to improve FX inflows, and crowd in private capital for infrastructure and productivity enhancing investments.
16.The banking industry also has a central role to play in converting macroeconomic stability into realsector expansion and inclusive prosperity. Therefore, we shall continue to work with financial institutions to strengthen governance, deepen transparency in the FX market, deploy capital responsibly, invest in cybersecurity, and expand lending to SMEs, manufacturing, agribusiness, and other growthenabling sectors.
17.Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to express deep appreciation to the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria for your unwavering commitment to professionalism, ethics, and capacity building within the financial sector. Your leadership in promoting sound banking practices, enhancing human capital, and fostering constructive industry dialogue is instrumental in strengthening the credibility and resilience of our financial system. The Central Bank values this partnership and looks forward to continued collaboration.
18.In conclusion, I encourage all stakeholders, policymakers, business leaders, and financial institutions, to view the National Economic Outlook not merely as a set of projections, but as a strategic compass for informed decision making and longterm planning. By sustaining policy consistency, strengthening institutional coordination, and deepening reforms, we can convert the progress made so far into lasting macroeconomic stability, a more competitive business environment, and shared prosperity for all Nigerians.
19.I wish you productive deliberations and a successful Roundtable Session.
20.Thank you for your attention.
Dr. Muhammad S. Abdullahi
Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Directorate
Central Bank of Nigeria