CEM REPORT, AVIATION | The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is facing a major crisis, as three of its member countries – Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger – have announced their intention to withdraw from the regional bloc. The move comes after the three countries accused Nigeria’s President, who is also the Chairman of ECOWAS, of marginalising them and favouring his own country’s interests.
The decision has sparked concerns among stakeholders in the aviation industry, who fear that the three countries may retaliate by closing their airspace to flights originating from or destined for Nigeria. This could have a negative impact on the Nigerian economy, as well as the operations of airlines and aviation agencies.
Experts Analysis: ECOWAS Crisis and NAMA Impact
According to experts, the three countries account for about 50 per cent of the ECOWAS airspace and are strategically located along the routes of many flights to and from Nigeria, especially those going to Europe and southern Africa. If they close their airspace, Nigerian flights will have to take longer and more expensive detours, which will increase the cost of fuel, maintenance, and ticket prices.
According to Matthew Pwajok, the former Acting Managing Director of the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), in a THISDAY report, Nigeria had already experienced a similar situation with Niger Republic, which was sanctioned by ECOWAS for violating the democratic principles of the bloc. He said that the sanction prevented any flight from Niger to landing in Nigeria, and vice versa unless it had the approval of the National Security Adviser.
He said that if Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger follow suit, they will likely close their airspace to Nigeria as a form of revenge, which will hurt the revenue of NAMA and other aviation agencies. He said that NAMA relies heavily on the over-flier charges paid by foreign airlines in foreign currency, which will be reduced if they avoid the Nigerian airspace.
“So, NAMA’s revenue will drop. ECOWAS decision is that no flight from Niger will be allowed in Nigeria and no flight in Nigeria will be allowed in Niger, except technical stops like small planes and helicopters can stop there and refuel but there must be approval from the National Security Adviser,” Pwajok said.
Nigeria’s Trade and Transport Impact
He also said that the withdrawal of the three countries will affect the ECOWAS protocol on trade, transport, and diplomatic cooperation, which allows free movement of goods and people across the region without visas. He said that Nigerians will face more restrictions and barriers when travelling to or doing business with the three countries, and vice versa.
“Also, Nigerians will not be able to visit the countries without visa and goods from Nigeria may be barred from being sold in these countries. Most goods produced in Nigeria, including beverages, foot-wears, clothes, electric cables and others are sold across the nations that made up the ECOWAS states, but the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger will disorganise the ECOWAS protocol on trade, transport and diplomatic corporation, “Pwajok further said.
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Amos Akpan, the Managing Director of Flights and Logistics Solutions Limited, delves into the intricacies of Bilateral Air Services Agreements (BASA) and their role in this crisis. While diplomatic relations may be strained, Akpan argues that the withdrawal of ECOWAS members does not necessarily sever BASA, which has implications for air travel between the affected countries.
“These countries have announced withdrawal of membership from ECOWAS, not severance of diplomatic relationship with Nigeria. BASA is affected if diplomatic relations are cut off. That means airlinks between the two countries airlines are cut off too. This scenario often occurs if the two countries are at war. How then does this affect Nigerian Aviation?”
He noted that the ECOWAS protocols are linked to multilateral agreements that bind the member states, such as the Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA), which regulates the air traffic rights and obligations of the countries. He said that if the three countries leave ECOWAS, they will have to renegotiate their BASA with Nigeria, which could take a long time and create more uncertainty for the airlines.
He said that the ECOWAS crisis could also affect the implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), which is an initiative of the African Union to create a unified and liberalised air market in the continent. He said that the SAATM aims to enhance connectivity, reduce fares, and increase economic growth, but it requires the cooperation and commitment of all African countries, including those in ECOWAS.
“Nigerian businesses in the three countries will suffer setbacks. Trade and travel will now be subjected to each country’s diplomatic policy (gauge) with Nigeria. Nigerians have plenty of businesses operational in the three states. Though not captured in official records by Nigerian institutions, these countries import about forty per cent of their household utensils and disposable consumables from Nigeria. Inquire from the cargo agents in the airports and you will be informed of the stuff they freight to these countries including nylon bags, electronics, pharmaceuticals, toiletries, creams, soaps, detergents, toothpaste, apparel, shoes, bags, clothes e.t.c, produced in Nigeria – Aba, Kano, Nnewi, Agbara.
“Mostly goods imported from China in containers then break bulked and shipped to these countries. These are not captured in banks’ Form “M”. In the ’90s, my company used to load 34 tons to 40 tons of these items every 14 days to Mali, Guinea or Kinshasa. Currently, the tonnage is lower and frequencies have slowed down because of the general economic downturn. Check what goods and tonnage DHL and Ethiopian cargo flights are lifting to these countries from Nigeria monthly even when declared as transit cargo,” he said.
Looking Ahead
He urged the Nigerian government and the ECOWAS authorities to find a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the crisis and to address the grievances of the three countries. He said that the unity and stability of ECOWAS are vital for the development and integration of the region and the benefit of the aviation sector and the people.
“It will be costly to lose bilateral relations with neighbours of geopolitical strategic relevance. Take a lesson from America. They have retained their relationship with Niger and that’s why they still have their drones’ operational base in Niger despite the change from civil to military leadership. Besides ECOWAS, as neighbours, Nigeria and Niger have a very close relationship, which was thawed by the sanctions, but many believe that the central African nations may not take a retaliatory stance against Nigeria, “he said.
As the ECOWAS crisis unfolds, the Nigerian government and the aviation industry are faced with a multifaceted challenge. The potential closure of airspace by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger poses a threat to economic stability, diplomatic relations, and the aviation sector’s operational efficiency.
Strategies to navigate this crisis must encompass diplomatic negotiations, reassurance of interests, and contingency planning for the aviation industry. The repercussions of these events extend beyond borders, highlighting the interconnectedness of regional alliances and the delicate balance of international relations. The coming days will be crucial in determining how Nigeria addresses this unprecedented challenge and its implications for the broader West African community.
