World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised the 2025 world merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August).
According to the information published on its website, the upward review is in response to Global merchandise trade which outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products (such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment), a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world.
On the opposite, however, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world–particularly among emerging economies–helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” noting that South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall. South-South trade involving partners other than China is growing even faster, up around 9%.
“Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option. Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” DG Okonjo-Iweala said.
WTO further explained that the volume of world merchandise trade, (WMT) grew 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 while its value measured in current US dollar terms was up 6% year-on-year in the first six months of 2025 following a 2% increase in 2024.
World Merchandise Trade growth drivers in the first half of 2025
Trade growth drivers in the first half included the frontloading of imports in North America and favourable macroeconomic conditions such as disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, and strong growth in emerging markets.
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AI-related goods—including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment—drove nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, rising 20% year-on-year in value terms. Trade growth spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon and specialty gases to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications.
Global and regional projections
According to WTO, World merchandise trade volume growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024, to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The projection for global GDP growth is 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.
Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export volume growth in 2025, with modest performances also anticipated from South and Central America the Caribbean and the Middle East, while Europe will likely see slower growth. North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) face declining exports. Least-developed countries (LDCs) are expected to show robust export gains but face weakening trends ahead.
On the import side, Africa and LDCs are set to experience the fastest growth, contrasting with a contraction in North America. In 2026, only North America, Europe and CIS will post an improvement in export performance; all regions will record weaker import performance in 2026.
Services export growth is now expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. The reduced outlook for 2025 reflects weaker expected growth in Transport (2.5%, down from 4.5% in 2024) and Travel (3.1%, down from 11% last year due to post-pandemic recovery).
Growth in the category Other commercial services should only be slightly weaker in 2025 than in 2024 (5.8% compared to 6.3%), but digitally delivered services should be marginally stronger (6.1% compared to 5.7%). For 2026, growth in transport services is expected to be slower at 1.8%, reflecting the deteriorating outlook for merchandise trade. Meanwhile, travel growth should pick up slightly to 4.4%, while growth should remain mostly stable in Other commercial services (5.1%) and digitally delivered services (5.6%).
