CEM REPORT, FEATURED | The sinking of a Russian landing ship in Crimea by Ukrainian missiles has reignited tensions between Russia and the West, with some in Russia advocating for a retaliatory strike against a British warship.
The 370-foot Ropucha-class Novocherkassk was hit on December 26, reportedly with missiles supplied by the U.K. and aided by British intelligence. While Moscow admitted damage to the ship and casualties among its crew, the attack has sparked outrage and calls for a response.
According to Newsweek the attack left a dozens of Russian service members missing or wounded after. Moscow admitted damage to the ship, which carried a crew of up to 87 service members.
Russia Call for Attack
Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik has emerged as a vocal proponent of targeting the British warship HMS Diamond, currently participating in the U.S.-led “Guardian of Prosperity” operation in the Red Sea. He suggests supplying Houthis with anti-ship missiles and staging a symbolic attack with Russian aircraft, sending a message to the West without directly engaging NATO forces.
“This is a blow from Britain/the United States and a desire to interrupt the positive background from the capture of Marinka, as well as the recent successes of the Russian Armed Forces at the front,” Baranchik wrote on Telegram.
“We can provide the Houthis with appropriate anti-ship missiles, while the West supplies Kyiv with relevant specialists who are not formally in military service in the Russian Armed Forces.
“In principle, we can raise the stakes beyond the limits with mandatory preliminary information support.
“First, a message from a Russian official blamed Britain for the sinking of the Novocherkassk large landing ship. Then, take into the air two MiG-31K [missiles], preferably a MiG-31I, or two Tu-22M2/TU-22M2M—you need to look at the flight range of the carriers—and hit the British destroyer Diamond with two ‘daggers.’
“Do it yourself. And officially declare that Russia’s patience with the antics of the West is over. London will run to complain to the USA,” Baranchik said.
Expert Downplay Possible Attack
British officials declined to comment on Baranchik’s remarks, while U.S. experts expressed caution about the potential consequences of such an attack. Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian warned that targeting a British warship could trigger a wider conflict with NATO.
He however downplays the immediate threat, citing the logistical hurdles of sending missiles from Russia to Yemen and the potential for Iranian interception. He views Baranchik’s remarks as indicative of a broader trend of indirect pressure tactics employed by Russia, avoiding direct confrontation while testing Western resolve.
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“Clearly, the pressure that Ukraine is exerting on Crimea is hurting Russia,” Cancian said. “The logic here is indirect: The U.K. supplied Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, which Ukraine used to attack the ship in Crimea. Russia cannot attack U.K. forces in Europe without risking a conflict with NATO. However, it could have surrogates attack UK forces elsewhere.”
CEM Comment
Baranchik’s proposal highlights the delicate balance of power in the region, where escalating tensions between Russia and the West could have far-reaching consequences. The presence of Western naval forces in the Red Sea, already a volatile area due to the ongoing conflict in Yemen, adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
While the likelihood of an immediate attack on the HMS Diamond remains unclear, the incident serves as a stark reminder of the simmering tensions between Russia and the West.
The incident in Crimea has underscored the precarious state of the Ukraine war and the delicate balance of power in the region. With Western nations continuing to support Ukraine and tensions mounting between Russia and the West, the potential for further escalation remains a matter of serious concern.
The ongoing war in Ukraine and the fragile security situation in the Red Sea creates a dangerous environment where miscalculations could lead to a wider conflict.
