September 23, 2023

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Nigerian GDP Falls by 1.78%


 CEM REPORT, ECONOMY | The gross domestic product (GDP) of the country grew by 2.25% year-on-year in Q3 2022.

This is a decline of 1.29% points from 3.54% in Q2 2022 and 1.78% points from the 4.03% growth rate recorded in Q3 2021.

According to the latest GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this is the slowest growth since the Covid-19 pandemic.

NBS explained that the slow growth is attributable to the base effects of the recession and the challenging economic conditions that have impeded productive activities.

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N52.26 trillion in the quarter under review, representing a 15.83% growth compared to N45.11 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. Q3 2022 growth is higher compared to 15.03% and 15.41% recorded in Q2 2022 and Q3 2021 respectively.

Sectorial breakdown reveals that the Non-oil Sector grew by 4.27% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q3 2022).

This is a decline of 1.18% points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2021 and 0.50% points lower than the second quarter of 2022.

However, the Non-oil Sector contributed 94.34% to the total GDP an increase from 93.67% recorded in the previous sector,

Growth in the sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication), Trade, Transportation (Road Transport), Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Agriculture (Crop Production). And Real Estate, all accounting for positive GDP growth.

On the other hand, the Oil Sector grew 22.67% (year-on-year) as of Q3 2022.

This is however a decline of 11.94% points when compared to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021.

Also, the growth rate decreased by 10.91% points compared to the 11.77% recorded in Q2 2022.

The Oil sector contributed 5.66% to the total real GDP in Q3 2022, down from the figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.49% and 6.33%, respectively.

You would recall that in the third quarter of 2022, Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.20 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.57mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.37mbpd.

Comparatively, the Non-oil Sector contributed 94.34% to the total GDP, while the oil sector contributed 5.66% to the aggregate real GDP for the period.

Further breakdown of the report showed that the agricultural sector contributed 29.67% to the aggregate GDP, an increase from 23.24% recorded in the previous quarter and a 29.94% decline compared to the same period in 2021.

While Industries recorded a decline in their contribution from 19.4% in Q2 2022 to 18.37% in the review quarter. Meanwhile, services contributed 51.96% to the national GDP, a significant drop from 51.35% in Q2 2022.

The decline in Nigeria’s GDP growth is indicative of a drop in productivity in the economy due to the recurrent contraction in the oil sector and the low growth in key non-oil sectors such as transportation, banking, and education.

The Q3 2022 growth (2.25%) is the slowest GDP growth in the last six quarters.


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