Nigerian GDP Sustains Growth for the Fifth Quarter by 3.98% (y-on-y)

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CEM REPORT | Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98%(year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021, showing a sustained positive growth for the fifth quarter since the recession witnessed in 2020 when output contracted by -6.10% and -3.62% in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 under the Covid pandemic. The fourth quarter growth indicates a steady economic recovery accounting for an annual growth of 3.40% in 2021.

The Q4 2021 growth rate was higher than the 0.11% growth rate recorded in Q4 2020 by 3.87% points and lower than 4.03% recorded in Q3 2021 by 0.05% points. Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at 9.63% in Q4 2021 compared to Q3 2021, reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N49,276,018.23 million in nominal terms.

This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N43,564,006.29 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.11%. The nominal GDP growth rate in Q4 2021 was higher relative to 10.07% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 but lower compared to 15.41% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. 2021 annual nominal growth stood at 13.92%. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

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The nation in the fourth quarter of 2021 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.06mbpd and lower than the third quarter 2021 production volume of 1.57mbpd by 0.07mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was –8.06% (year-on-year) in Q4 2021 indicating an increase by 11.71% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 2.68% points when compared to Q3 2021 which was –10.73%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -24.06% in Q4 2021. Annual growth stood at -8.30%, a rate better than the -8.89% recorded in 2020. The Oil sector contributed 5.19% to total real GDP in Q4 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87% and 7.49% respectively. Nevertheless, the sector contributed 7.24% to real GDP in 2021.

The non-oil sector grew by 4.73% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2021). This rate was higher by 3.05% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 0.71% point lower than the third quarter of 2021. This sector was driven in fourth quarter 2021 mainly by Agriculture (crop production); trade; Information and Communication (Telecommunication); and Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.81% to the nation’s GDP in fourth quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 which was 94.13% and higher than the third quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.51%. The annual contribution in 2021 was 92.76%.

The sector grew by 12.86% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2021, showing a fall of 1.17% points from the same quarter of 2020. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 7.95%, there was an increase of 4.92% points. Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 91.23% of overall nominal growth of the sector in fourth quarter 2021.  Quarter on Quarter growth stood at -0.65% in fourth quarter 2021, while annual growth was at 10.43% in 2021. Agriculture contributed 24.17% to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021. This figure was lower than the rate recorded for the fourth quarter of 2020 and lower than the third quarter of 2021 which recorded 24.23% and 26.57% respectively.

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The agricultural sector in the fourth quarter of 2021 grew by 3.58% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase of 0.16% points from the corresponding period of 2020, and an increase of 2.36% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 1.22%. It grew on a quarter-on -quarter basis at -1.69%. Nonetheless, an annual growth of 2.13% was recorded in 2021.

However, the sector contributed 26.84% to overall GDP in real terms in Q4 2021, lower than the contribution in the fourth quarter of 2020 and lower than the third quarter of 2021 which stood at 26.95% and 29.94% respectively.

Manufacturing sector grew nominally by 25.52% (year-on-year), 0.92% points higher than figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 (24.60%) and 7.21% points lower than the preceding quarter figure of 32.73%. Quarter on Quarter growth of the sector was recorded at 0.03%, while annual growth of 31.66% was recorded in 2021. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in fourth quarter 2021 was 14.28%, higher than figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 at 12.87% and lower than the third quarter of 2021 at 15.59%.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 2.28% (year on year), higher than the same quarter of 2020 and lower than the preceding quarter by 3.80% points and 2.01% points respectively. Growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at 3.57%. Real contribution to GDP in 2021 fourth quarter was 8.46%, lower than the 8.60% recorded in fourth quarter of 2020 and lower than the 8.96% recorded in third quarter 2021.

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