Nigerian GDP real growth declined to 1.87% in Q1 2020

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CEM REPORT, LAGOS
Nigeria’s Q1 2020 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87% (year-on-year) in real terms recording a 0.23% points fall compared to  Q1 2019 and –0.68% points compared to Q4 2019.

Nigerian Bureau of Statistics released this figures Monday.

“This  performance  was  recorded  against  the  backdrop  of  significant  global  disruptions  resulting from  the  COVID-19 public  health  crisis,  a  sharp  fall  in  oil  prices  and  restricted  international  trade”, NBS stated in the report

According to the report, quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was –14.27% compared to 5.59% recorded in the preceding quarter.

Aggregate GDP stood at N35,647,406.08 million in nominal terms in the quarter under review, an increased performance  from  first  quarter  of  2019  which recorded N31,824,349.67 million.

With a nominal growth rate of 12.01% year on year, the Q1 2020 recorded an increase by 0.11% points when compared to the first quarter of 2019 and decline by –0.32% points when compared to the preceding quarter.

The Nigerian oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06% (year-on-year) and 11.30% (Quarter-on-quarter). This indicate an increase of 6.51% points (year-on-year) when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019 and growth decrease by –1.30% points when compared to Q4 2019 which was 6.36%.

The non-oil sector grew by 1.55% in real terms in Q1 2020. This was slower by –0.93% points when compared to the rate recorded Q1 2019, and –0.72% points in Q4 2019

Growth in the Mining & Quarrying decreased nominally by –10.57% (year on year) in Q1 2020. In real terms, the sector grew by 4.58% (year-on-year) in the quarter. This is higher by 5.95% points compared Q1 2019 but lower by –1.49% points.

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The  Mining  and  Quarrying  contributed 9.54%  to  Real  GDP in Q1 202, a rate higher than the 9.29%  Q1 2019  and  the  7.48% in  Q4 2019.

Agricultural sector growth declined  by  –0.11% at  22.47%  year-on-year  in  nominal  terms  in  Q1 2020,  Comparing with the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 13.80% indicates an increase of 8.66% points.

In real terms, the sector grew by 2.20% (year-on-year) indicating a decrease of –0.97% points compared to Q1 2019, and –0.11% points from Q4 2019 which recorded a growth rate of 2.31%

However, the sector contributed 21.96% to overall GDP in real terms in Q1 2020, slightly higher than the contribution  in  Q1  2019   but  lower  than  the  fourth  quarter  of  2019 which stood  at  21.89% and 26.09% respectively.

The Manufacturing sector recorded a growth 28.47% (year-on-year), or -7.97%  points  lower  than  the 36.45% recorded  in  the  corresponding  period  of  2019  but  2.18%  points  higher  than  the  preceding  quarter’s  rate  of  26.29%.

In real terms, GDP growth was 0.43% (year on year), lower than  the  same  quarter  of  2019  as  well  as  the  preceding  quarter  by  –0.38%  points  and  –0.81%  points respectively .

Growth rate of the sector, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, stood at –5.38%, lower than the rate recorded in Q1 2019.

Real contribution to GDP in Q1 2020 was 9.65%, lower than the 9.79% recorded in first quarter of 2019 but higher than the 8.74% recorded in Q4 2019

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