CEM Report: Lagos
The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 12.34 percent (year-on-year) in April 2020. Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS declared in a report released Thursday
This growth in April inflation is 0.08 percent points higher than the 12.26 percent recorded in March 2020 .
Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.
On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.02 percent in April 2020. This is 0.18 percent rate higher than the 0.84 percent recorded in March 2020.
The rise in inflation is actually not unexpected since commercial movement of food and other goods where distorted as a result of interstate and intrastate restrictions imposed to curtail the spread of coronavirus.
According to the report, percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending April 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.71 percent, showing 0.09 percent point rise from 11.62 percent recorded in March 2020.
The reported stated that urban inflation rate increased by 13.01 percent (year-on-year) in April rising from 12.93 percent recorded in March 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by  11.73 percent in April rising from 11.64 percent in March 2020.
Increase in inflation rate was also recorded on a month-on-month basis for urban and rural indices.
Urban index rose by 1.06 percent in April, up by 0.18 from 0.88 percent recorded in March 2020, while the rural index also rose by 0.98 percent in April 2020, up by 0.18 from the rate recorded in March 2020 (0.80) percent; NBS stated.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 12.26 percent in April 2020. This is higher than 12.15 percent reported in March 2020, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in April 2020 is 11.20 percent compared to 11.14 percent recorded in March 2020.
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The composite food index rose by 15.03 percent in April 2020 compared to 14.98 percent in March 2020.
This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Bread and cereals, Fish, Oils and fats, Meat, Fruits and Vegetables.
On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.18 percent in April 2020, up by 0.24 percent points from 0.94 percent recorded in March 2020.
The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending April 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 14.22  percent, 0.11  percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2020 (14.11) percent.
The ” All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.98 percent in April 2020, up by 0.25 percent when compared with 9.73 percent recorded in March 2020.
On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.93 percent in April 2020. This was up by 0.13 percent when compared with 0.80 percent recorded in March 2020.
The highest increases were recorded in prices of Bicycles, Passenger transport by road, Passenger transport by sea and inland waterways, Paramedical services, Hospital services, pharmaceutical products, Medical services, Motor cycles and Major household appliances whether electric or not.
The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.17 percent for the twelve-month period ending April 2020. This is 0.06 percent points higher than 9.11 percent recorded in March 2020.
Rise in inflation is equally expected for May and June considering the spread of the COVID-19 to other states that initially did not have cases as well as the interstate restriction that is still on.
