CEM Report: Lagos
The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 12.34 percent (year-on-year) in April 2020. Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS declared in a report released Thursday

This  growth in April inflation is  0.08  percent  points  higher  than  the  12.26 percent recorded  in  March 2020 .

Increases  were  recorded  in  all  COICOP  divisions  that  yielded  the  Headline  index.

On  month-on-month  basis,  the  Headline  index  increased  by  1.02  percent  in  April  2020.  This is  0.18 percent  rate  higher  than  the  0.84  percent  recorded  in  March 2020.

The rise in inflation is actually not unexpected since commercial movement of food and other goods where distorted as a result of interstate and intrastate restrictions imposed to curtail the spread of coronavirus.

According to the report, percentage  change  in  the  average  composite  CPI  for  the  twelve  months period  ending  April  2020  over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.71 percent, showing 0.09 percent point  rise  from  11.62  percent  recorded  in  March 2020.

The reported stated that urban  inflation  rate  increased  by  13.01  percent  (year-on-year) in April rising  from  12.93  percent recorded  in  March 2020,  while the  rural  inflation  rate  increased  by  11.73  percent  in  April rising  from  11.64 percent  in  March 2020.

Increase in inflation rate was also recorded on a month-on-month basis for urban and rural indices.

Urban index rose  by  1.06  percent  in  April,  up  by  0.18  from  0.88 percent recorded in  March 2020, while the rural index also rose by 0.98 percent in  April 2020, up by 0.18 from  the  rate  recorded  in  March 2020  (0.80)  percent; NBS stated.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 12.26 percent in April 2020. This is  higher than  12.15 percent reported  in  March 2020, while the  corresponding rural  inflation  rate  in  April  2020  is  11.20  percent  compared  to  11.14  percent  recorded  in  March 2020.

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The  composite  food  index  rose  by  15.03  percent  in  April  2020  compared  to  14.98  percent  in  March 2020.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Bread and cereals, Fish,  Oils  and  fats,  Meat, Fruits  and  Vegetables.

On month-on-month basis,  the  food  sub-index  increased  by  1.18  percent  in  April 2020,  up  by  0.24  percent points  from  0.94  percent  recorded  in  March 2020.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending April 2020 over  the  previous  twelve-month  average  was 14.22   percent,  0.11   percent  points  from  the  average  annual rate  of  change  recorded  in  March 2020  (14.11)  percent.

The  ” All  items  less  farm  produce”  or  Core  inflation,  which  excludes  the  prices  of  volatile  agricultural produce  stood  at  9.98  percent  in  April  2020,  up  by  0.25  percent  when  compared  with  9.73  percent recorded  in  March 2020.

On month-on-month basis,  the  core  sub-index  increased  by  0.93  percent  in  April  2020.  This  was up  by  0.13 percent  when  compared  with  0.80  percent  recorded  in  March 2020.

The  highest  increases  were  recorded  in  prices  of  Bicycles,  Passenger  transport  by  road,  Passenger transport  by  sea  and  inland  waterways,  Paramedical  services,  Hospital services,  pharmaceutical  products, Medical services,  Motor cycles  and  Major household  appliances  whether  electric  or  not.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.17 percent for the twelve-month period ending April 2020.  This  is  0.06  percent  points  higher  than  9.11  percent  recorded  in  March 2020.

Rise in inflation is equally expected for May and June considering the spread of the COVID-19 to other states that initially did not have cases as well as the interstate restriction that is still on.

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