Nigerian GDP grew by 2.55% in Q4 2019

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Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.55% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nigerian Bureau of Statistics stated in the Q4 2019 report released Monday.

This growth represent a 0.17%  increase when compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded a growth rate of 2.38%, and increase of 0.27% points when compared with the third quarter of 2019.

As stated in the report, the fourth quarter 2019 growth rate is a strong one also represented the highest quarterly growth performance since the 2016 recession.

Putting the four quarters of 2019 growth together, the year grew in real terms at the rate of 2.27%, compared to 1.91% in 2018. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 5.59%.

The report further stated that in Q4 2019, aggregate GDP stood at N39,577,340.04 million in nominal terms. This was higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded an aggregate of N35,230,607.63 million, representing year on year nominal growth rate of 12.34%. This rate was –0.31% points lower relative to the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 and –0.96% points lower than the rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors .

Real GDP growth 2015 - 2019
Real GDP growth 2015 – 2019

IN THE OIL SECTOR, the NBS measuring the oil sector growth in terms of daily oil production stated that average daily oil production of 2.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded during the fourth quarter of 2019, indicating a rise of 0.09mbpd over the daily average production of 1.91 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018. However, it was –0.04mbpd lower than the production volume of 2.04mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, it is notable that oil production remained consistently at or above 2.0mbpd all through 2019.

In real terms, NBS reported that growth of the oil sector was 6.36% (year-on-year) in Q4 2019 indicating an increase of 7.98% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Growth decreased by –0.13% points when compared to Q3 2019 which was 6.49%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –20.87% in Q4 2019. On an annual basis, oil recorded 4.59% growth in 2019, higher compared to 0.97% recorded in 2018.

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The Oil sector contributed 7.32% to total real GDP in Q4 2019, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.06% and 9.77% respectively. Oil contributed 8.78% to real GDP in 2019.

The non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2019). This was lower by –0.44% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher than the third quarter of 2019. This sector was driven, during the fourth quarter of 2019, mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture (Crop Production), Financial and Insurance Services (Financial Institutions), and Manufacturing. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.68% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019, lower from shares recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%) but higher than the third quarter of 2019 (90.23%). The annual contribution of the non-Oil sector stood at 91.22% in 2019.

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